Political forecast cycles

A moral hazard model is used to show why overly optimistic revenue forecasts prior to elections can be optimal: Opportunistic governments can increase spending and appear more competent; ex post deficits emerge in election years, thereby producing political forecast cycles – as also found for US states in the empirical literature. Additionally, we obtain three theoretical results which are tested with panel data for Portuguese municipalities. The extent of manipulations is reduced when (i) the winning margin is expected to widen; (ii) the incumbent is not re-running; and/or (iii) the share of informed voters (proxied by education) goes up.     

Toward a new business model of retail industry: The role of brand experience and brand authenticity

While the customer-to-manufacturer (C2M) business model has received increasing attention as a new business model for e-commerce and retail industry, little is still known about it and the effect of its approach. This study aims to understand how brand-related stimuli in C2M environments affect customer responses as the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic. The outcomes reveal that the Sensory, affective, and intellectual aspects of brand experience positively influence brand authenticity. Brand authenticity has a positive effect on behavioral intention, such as reuse intention and word-of-mouth. Additionally, this research finds that social presence moderates the association between the sensory aspect of brand experience. Thus, this study can suggest a C2M business model as a means of sustainable operation of the retail industry to both researchers and practitioners in relation to the retail industry.     

All that glitters is not gold: An investigation into the undesired effects of gamification and how to mitigate them through gamification design

Although gamification has received considerable attention from both researchers and practitioners, its influence on consumers remains ambiguous. This paper proposes that a negative process through decreased attention and a positive process through increased enjoyment explain the effects of gamification on different outcome variables. Study 1 examines these two processes and gamification’s downstream consequences on purchase intention and product information recognition. For purchase intention, the two processes operate in parallel and produce a null effect of gamification. For product information recognition, only the negative process emerges, resulting in a negative effect of gamification. Studies 2 and 3 focus on the negative effect of gamification on product information recognition and show that the negative effect disappears in gamification designs that link the game elements with meaningful information about the product (Study 2) or make consumers aware of the distraction potential of game elements (Study 3). The studies’ findings provide managerial insights into why not all gamification endeavors yield the desired results; they also specify two boundary conditions (i.e., meaningfulness and disclosure) that may help managers avoid potentially detrimental effects of gamification.     

实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

Effects of augmented reality technology characteristics on customer citizenship behavior

In recent years, augmented reality (AR) technology has received considerable attention from academics and practitioners. Although AR technology has a bright side, its dark side has been relatively overlooked. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effects of AR technology characteristics on customer citizenship behavior via two conflicting mechanisms: customer immersion and customer fatigue. The study also explored the boundary conditions of customer experience. A total of 247 questionnaires were collected from customers who had prior experience of using IKEA's AR mobile shopping application. A structured model was analyzed using SmartPLS 3 and PROCESS Macro for mediation and moderated mediation effects. The study enriches the current knowledge on AR technology by demonstrating that AR technology can lead to customer citizenship behavior in relation to a brand's AR technology. Interestingly, customer immersion was found to positively mediate the relationship, but customer fatigue was found to negatively mediate it. Furthermore, customer experience was found to strengthen the positive mediation effect of customer immersion and weaken the negative mediation effect of customer fatigue.     

The new wave of AI-powered luxury brands online shopping experience: The role of digital multisensory cues and customers’ engagement

Academic literature retains a dearth of empirical evidence of the cutting-edge aspect of artificial intelligence (AI)-powered digital assistance and digital multisensory cues, despite the prospect of these factors on real-life customers' luxury brand online shopping experience. Thus, the aim of this study is to examine the significant pathway and effects of AI-powered digital assistance toward customers’ luxury brand online shopping experience. Drawing on S–O-R (Stimulus, organism, and response) and TRAM (Technology Readiness and Acceptance Model) paradigm, a multi-method research design was deployed to investigate constructs. Firstly, semi-structured interviews were utilized to explore customers' online behavior under the luxury brands and information technology aspect. Secondly, survey data were collected and analyzed by using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). The PLS-based analysis of quantitative data confirmed the exploratory insights of qualitative findings, establishing the connections of AI-powered digital assistance, customer engagement, and customers' luxury brand online shopping experience. Research findings also suggest that customer engagement plays a mediation role in the relationship between AI-powered digital assistance and customers' luxury brand online shopping experience. Besides, digital multisensory cues moderate the relationship between AI-powered digital assistance and customer engagement. Further, fsQCA complements the findings of PLS-SEM that reveal the significant combination of factors that lead to the perceptions of customers' luxury brand online shopping experience.     

Financial returns to collecting rare political economy books

Rare books of political economy are eminently collectable. Using historical prices, I employ hedonic regressions to estimate financial returns to collecting the works of ten eminent political economists and develop a price index for this corpus of collectables. For the observation period 1975–2019, I find that in those 45 years investing in rare political economy books yielded an average annual real rate of return of 2.8%, which is well in line with the returns to collecting rare books of classical literature. Compared with other collectibles such as fine art, investing in rare books turns out to be financially more profitable.     

理性人的人情味：快手“老铁经济”的内在机制和逻辑

以中国用户规模最大短视频平台之一快手头部主播直播带货推广项目的案例和数据分析为基础,构建解释快手直播电商经济底层逻辑的社会学机制模型.提出快手直播电商经济背后的3种社会学机制:关键影响者逻辑、身份认同逻辑和社会网络逻辑.通过LDA文档主题生成模型将快手主播的直播语义字段进行文档主题生成归类,发现情感因素和理性因素词交互影响受众的购买决策,它背后的社会学作用机制是关键影响者逻辑和身份认同逻辑.2020年快手直播电商半年交易额已达1044亿元,理解快手直播背后的影响机制,能够持续优化推广模型,在互联网流量广告领域具有重要的应用价值.     

国内外众创经济研究述评——基于文献计量与扎根理论分析

立足众创时代特征,运用文献计量对1999—2018年间1701篇国内外众创文献挖掘分析,探寻众创经济特点主题,探析众创发展知识基础,探求众创研究演进脉络,并获取众创经济视域下核心语句和高频词语,运用扎根理论对抽取的126篇的众创文献样本进行三级编码,进而构建众创研究的整合性理论框架,探究众创研究的系统性发展图景。研究表明,众创理论假说大量问世,众创文献热点主题包括六类,众创经济研究存在两种演进趋势,众创经济治理系统理论具有三个维度;未来应关注众创主体思辨性、众创要素系统性和众创技术本土化等专题研究。